BULLETIN:  TRUMP WINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA, BUSH DROPS OUT – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:

With 99% of the vote in, Trump has 32.5%, Rubio is in second place with 22.5%, and Cruz is in third with 22.3%.  It's conceivable Rubio and Cruz could change places when all the votes are counted.  Essentially they're tied.

Yes, Trump won, but is that a famous victory?  Only 32.5%.  He never seems to get out of the low- or mid-thirties.  Not too great, I'd say.  

Jeb Bush has withdrawn.  I'd hope that John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson do the right thing and withdraw as well.  That would leave a three-man race, and it would get hot and bitter.  Cruz and Rubio would compete to be the anointed challenger to Trump, and Trump would try to destroy both of them.  A three-man race could easily result in a three-way split, or nearly a three-way split.

A major complication:  After March 15th, as I understand it, GOP rules require primaries to be winner-take-all, either by state or Congressional district.  That makes it much easier for Trump, if he maintains any kind of lead. 

The great majority of voters in Republican primaries have not voted for Trump.  Tonight, some 68% of South Carolina Republicans voted for someone else.  Those numbers call into question the design of this system.  Did anyone anticipate a race which began with 17 candidates on the debate stage?  Did anyone anticipate a "frontrunner" who isn't even a member of the Republican Party?

Within one month both Republican and Democratic nominations could be decided.  On the other hand, we could have an open convention in one or both parties.  Or Mike Bloomberg could get in as an independent and change the dynamics of the election.

An incredible election year.  I wish we had a Reagan.  We don't, and it's the nation's loss. 

February 20, 2016